According to the latest dentsu Ad Spend Report, advertising investment is forecast to grow by 9.2% globally in 2022, exceeding real GDP growth[1] projections by 4.7 percentage points. The semiannual report anticipates US$745bn will be spent globally based on data from more than 50 markets.
When compared to the recovery period following the 2008 financial crisis, today’s post-pandemic ad spend is expected to outpace post-2008 ad spend by almost three to one. In 2022 global ad spend is forecast to grow by 9.2%, almost three times more than the 3.4% growth in 2011. Comparing the two-year post-crisis ad markets, in 2022 the global ad market exceeds the 2019 pre-pandemic ad market by18.7%, whereas in 2011 the global ad market was 1.0% less than in 2008
Based on data from the top 13 markets,[2] dentsu predict that Q1 2022 will grow by 8.9% on a like-for-like basis, boosted by the Winter Olympics & Paralympics Beijing 2022 and as Q1 2021 spend was hindered by lockdowns and restrictions across markets including Germany, Italy, Spain, and Brazil. Q2 and Q3 2022 are forecast to grow by 10-11%, with mid-term election spend in the US expected to pick up from Q3 2022 and to continue into Q4. Q4 2022 is forecast to grow by 9.2% on a like-for-like basis driven by the FIFA World Cup Qatar and the holiday season.
Following a 29.1% increase in 2021, we forecast Digital investment to grow by 14.8% in 2022, fuelled by Video, Connected TV, Programmatic and E-commerce - bringing the Digital share of spend to 55.5% (US$408.4 billion) of the total as spend.
Our dentsu teams also forecast Linear Television ad spend to grow by 3.8% to reach US$197.8 billion. However, unlike Digital and despite staying in high demand, Linear Television share of spend is on a declining trend as Connected TV and VOD grow.
Out-of-Home (OOH) and cinema will both see encouraging double-digit growth in 2022 (respectively 12.8% and 23.4%), with OOH even exceeding 2019 pre-pandemic spend levels. Radio too is forecast to grow, yet at a slower pace (2.0%). As with previous predictions, ad spend in newspapers and magazines will continue to decline.
As advertisers use the report to guide their 2022 media strategy, we invite them to reflect specifically on three of the brand considerations covered in the report:
- Accelerate sustainable media efforts
In the years ahead, ad spending will be an important reflection not just of economic confidence, and innovation, but the speed and scale of adoption of more sustainable behaviours, and the transformation of economies. With 84% of people surveyed by dentsu and Microsoft Advertising saying they would more likely buy from a company that practices sustainable advertising,[3] there is a significant business growth opportunity for those brands prepared to embrace sustainable media.
- Future-proof data, identity, and measurement capabilities
Brands should regularly interrogate privacy practices in place to develop a perfect view of where and how data of customers and prospects is collected and processed. They must also review their dependence to third-party cookies in light of the end of support of third-party cookies by the most popular web browsers by the end of 2023. Then, advertisers should design a strategic user ID Management plan to engage customers seamlessly across their journey, from media interactions to post-purchase relations. Additionally, brands should regularly reassess how they measure media performance. For instance, through the Attention Economy programme,[4] dentsu has established the value of attention as a media effectiveness metric, including how best to measure it and apply it in practice.
- Explore the gaming opportunity
As the gaming opportunity grows, brands will flock to this space, for better or for worse. It is important to understand that the inherent passion for the gaming industry demands that brands connect with the community in a meaningful way. Brands should also remember that in many cases advertising will not be the primary revenue driver for game publishers. Therefore, to even be allowed into the gaming spaces, brands will need to focus on the value they can bring to the experience.
Of course, many factors contributing to the uncertain economic outlook could influence the predictions, from the evolution of the pandemic to supply chain issues, and dentsu recommend the industry keep a close eye on key economic indicators, which is what we’ll be doing in partnership with our clients at dentsu X to ensure we’re understanding how these changes impact our work
For more information, please download the full dentsu Ad Spend report
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[1] OECD, OECD Economic Outlook, Volume 2021 Issue 2: Preliminary version, Table 1.1 - December 2021
[2] United States, Canada, Brazil, United Kingdom, Germany, France, Italy, Spain, Russia, China, India, Japan, Australia
[3] Dentsu and Microsoft Advertising, The Rise of Sustainable Media, December 2021
[4] Dentsu, Unlocking the new currency of Attention, May 2021
